Scenarios serve to show possible options for future developments.
What is it: Scenarios help overcome thinking limitations by developing multiple futures. Scenario processes create possible, probable, and preferable visions of the future. They are focused on what might yet be. Scenario development increases the ability of organizations and institutions to deal with their uncertain environments.
Scenarios help overcome thinking limitations by developing multiple futures. Scenario processes create possible, probable, and preferable visions of the future. They are focused on what might yet be. Scenario development increases the ability of organizations and institutions to deal with their uncertain environments.
TO KNOW MORE:
Goodspeed, R. (2020) Scenario Planning for Cities and Regions. Managing and envisioning uncertain futures. Cambridge, Massachusetts.
Lindgren, M. and Bandhold, H. (2009) Scenario Planning. The Link between future and strategy. Hampshire, 2nd ed.
When to use it: The method can be used for strategy processes as well as for organizational development. In transformation contexts, it helps to understand an organization’s environments and identifies options for change.
Time / Duration: LONG. Including preparations, organization, implementation and evaluation, six months should be planned. The implementation of the workshops takes half a day to a full day.
Cost: PERSONNEL RESOURCES. One or two people have to organize and control the whole process.
Materials: A suitable location to have a group discussion with around 8-10 people. It is also helpful to have an external professional moderator if possible.
OPTIONAL: Presentation material, writing material for participants.
Expertise: MEDIUM-HIGH. Expertise is required to get into the logic of the method and implement it.
It is about handling and managing complexity and thinking in alternatives.
- Public administration: Transport planning and urban development, and municipal utility.
- Mobility service providers.
- Municipal transport providers.
- Organizations for affected parties (vulnerable groups).
- IT experts.
- Civil society.
- Transport interest groups.
- Business representatives.
Nº of participants: 12 – 15 participants.
1. The scoping process includes the scenario field identification, problem definition, resource planning, and the logistical organization of the scenario process.
2. Exploration: In this phase, internal and external environments are analyzed and the system will be constructed. The basic tasks include: environmental scanning, definition of system components and defining and clustering driving forces.
3. Development: Key factor identification: in this step, the central influencing factors of the system are defined.
4. Construction: This phase marks the beginning of the actual future analysis. Projecting the key factors into the future is the central step that determines possible scenarios and their quality.
5. Implementation: This step is aimed at the inference of consequences and political strategies and completes the scenario-building process.
Main outcomes: The direct outcomes are the complex and alternative scenarios.
On the basis of the scenarios, strategies and action plans can be developed and thus development perspectives are defined.
An additional value is the experience of the participants and the change of their mental maps and perspective assumptions.
Tips / Remarks / Suggestions: The method should be taken seriously and a high level of involvement should be aimed for. It is a collaborative work that requires the commitment and openness in the thinking of each participant.
Limitations of the method:
The method does not generate forecasts or predictions.
It does not produce strategies, but only the basis for them.
It requires a high degree of independent thinking.
In general, it is resource intensive.